Managing complexity
We underestimate complexity all the time. Projects take longer and produce less than we think. When things don't go as planned, we find specific reasons to explain away our failures. Often, these reasons are framed as unforeseeable circumstances. While we make fun of politicians and business executives when they do this, we've all done it at some point.
The real reason for our failures is our incompetence to deal with the general complexity surrounding our problems. We don't learn to manage complexity in school.
There are many ways to manage complexity. Some examples:
Shock the system. A single piglet strolling through the forest doesn't change much. A herd of boars stampeding through is another matter. In other words, hit the earth like a comet.
Reduce. We constantly expand. When you never cut back, how do you maintain control? Most of what we do is noise anyway.
Know the details. To take a bold decision without being in the details is not courageous. It's dumb.
Explore. Since the world is deceptive, ambitious projects require non-obvious intermediate steps. You won't find them without exploration.
Be unexpected. A complex system adapts. The more unexpected your action, the less time the system has had to adapt. Draw boxes where others draw sheep.