inertia of complex systems due to energetic demands & scale of operations
past transitions may have been fast because magnitudes were small
fundamentals of our lives won't change drastically in next 30 years
globalisation necessary in modern civilisation
(many rely on food imports; self-sufficiency in raw materials impossible)
small share of population produces civilization’s energy & materials (mechanisation)
people focus excessively on possibility of outcome instead of probability
unique times: return in centuries organic carbon stored over 100s of mio. years
so far, substantial moves toward decarbonisation only from technical advances
organisms that best capture available energy hold evolutionary advantage
useful energy supply: 0.05 (2.7; 28; 34) gj per capita in 1800 (1900; 2000; 2020)
4 pillars of modern civilisation: ammonia, steel, concrete, plastics
2019 world consumption: ~4.5 bn tons (cement), ~1.8 bn tons (steel),
~370 mio. tons (plastics), ~150 mio. tons (ammonia); not replaceable/producible with electricity
17% primary energy supply, 25% of CO2 emissions p.a from producing the 4 pillars
ammonia = 82% nitrogen; 10-30 t/hectare manure; instead, ~4 mj nitrogen per kg of grain;
first ammonia synthesis plant in 1913 by BASF (using Haber-Bosch synthesis);
~60% of nutrients in Chinese crops from ammonia; ~160 (~20) kg fertilizer per hectare p.a. in EU (Ethiopia)
plastic: production 20 k/2 mio./150 mio./370 mio. tons in 1925/1950/2000/2019; modern life
begins (in maternity wards) & ends (in ICUs) surrounded by plastic items
steel: avg. car ~900 kg steel; iron ore production p.a. (esp. Australia, Brazil, China)
today ~2.5 bn tons (world resources >800 bn tons)
concrete: today, most humans live in concrete cities; airstrips, dams, etc. need it;
China produced as much cement in 2018/19 as US in 20th century (~4.4 bn tons);
deteriorates quickly (big challenge in 2nd half of 21st century)
resource/production (R/P) ratio of crude oil/steel/phosphate >50/>300/>300 ys
9 critical biospheric boundaries: climate change; ocean acidification; depletion of stratospheric ozone;
atmospheric aerosols; interference in nitrogen/phosphorus cycles (esp. release into coastal waters);
freshwater use (excessive withdrawals); land use changes (deforestation, urban expansion); biodiversity loss;
chemical pollution
ways to reduce fossil food dependence
food: less waste (bad crop storage/refrigeration, long chains),
less overproduction, lower environmental cost (meat consumption in Japan <30 kg p.a., western world >100 kg),
solar-/wind-powered irrigation; precision farming (e.g. nitrogen)
30% food wasted (~50% root crops/fruits/vegetables; ~30% of fish/cereals; ~20% oilseeds/meat/dairy products);
US food waste statistics unchanged for 40 years
develop high-energy-density & low-cost batteries; less SUVs, more electric cars
global growth shocks due to energy price surge
1/1/1974: Gulf states raised posted oil price to $11.65/barrel (4.5x in a single year) -->
global economic growth rate dropped by 90 percent in 1973-75
1978: takeover of Iran by fundamentalist theocracy ($13 in 1978 to $34 in 1981) -->
global economic growth rate dropped by 90 percent in 1979-82
recent economic progress impossible with 80% labor force in agriculture
2 secs. (10 mins.) human labor for 1 kg of US wheat today (200 ys ago)
grow/mill grain+bake = ~250 ml diesel fuel (w/o transport) per kg of sourdough bread
feed+rear+slaughter+process+store+cook: ~350 ml crude oil per kg of chicken meat
seafood: ~700 ml diesel fuel per kg (some shrimp/lobster >10 l/kg; aquacultured herbivores,
e.g. Chinese carp, <300 ml/kg)
2020 world electricity: 10% nuclear, 16% hydro, 7% wind & solar, 66% coal & natural gas
viable large-scale electricity storage: pumped hydro storage (~25% power loss)
external energy phases
fire (t->100 k ys); crop cultivation & animal domestication (t-10 k ys); sails (t-5 k ys);
waterwheels (t-2 k ys); windmills (t-1 k ys); coal (t-400 ys); steam engines (t-200 ys)
0.0000005 (0.000000028) fatalities per hour of exposure on US road (international flight)
natural catastrophes: annual frequency 2x (1.6x) 1980-2005 (2005-19);
warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor (higher rain risk) & causes more droughts (higher fire risk)
inexpensive risk measure: install smoke/carbon monoxide/natural gas sensors
forms of energy: gravitational energy, kinetic energy, heat energy, elastic energy,
electrical energy, chemical energy, radiant energy, nuclear energy, mass energy