underlying believe: 1) drawdowns matter more than wins (panic early, sell immediately),
2) financial markets are tied to continuous central bank interventions which amplify crisis risk
far out-of-the-money 1-month S&P500 put (or VIX call) options
excellence in pricing these options is competitive advantage
sometimes they sold options (puts & calls) with strike prices close to underlying stock value (because they had superior pricing)
1.5% management fee on AUM + 20% performance fee on gains
combine tremendous patience with overwhelming aggression
narrative fallacy: we simplify and believe the world is less random than it is
gray swan characteristics: exponential growth with positive feedback loop hurdles towards phase transition
triggered civilisational collapse in the past: excessive complexity, war plagues, environmental havoc
FAO food index > 210 indicates high risk of violent outbreaks
Freedom House's global index of worldwide democracy fell for the 16th year in 2021.