How the World Really Works, Vaclav Smil
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- Substrat: fossil fuels needed until 4 pillars + flying + shipping + trucking sustainable
- inertia of complex systems due to energetic demands & scale of operations
- past transitions may have been fast because magnitudes were small
- fundamentals of our lives won't change drastically in next 30 years
- globalisation necessary in modern civilisation
(many rely on food imports; self-sufficiency in raw materials impossible)
- small share of population produces civilization’s energy & materials (mechanisation)
- people focus excessively on possibility of outcome instead of probability
- unique times: return in centuries organic carbon stored over 100s of mio. years
- so far, substantial moves toward decarbonisation only from technical advances
- organisms that best capture available energy hold evolutionary advantage
- useful energy supply: 0.05 (2.7; 28; 34) gj per capita in 1800 (1900; 2000; 2020)
- 4 pillars of modern civilisation: ammonia, steel, concrete, plastics
- 2019 world consumption: ~4.5 bn tons (cement), ~1.8 bn tons (steel),
~370 mio. tons (plastics), ~150 mio. tons (ammonia); not replaceable/producible with electricity
- 17% primary energy supply, 25% of CO2 emissions p.a from producing the 4 pillars
- ammonia = 82% nitrogen; 10-30 t/hectare manure; instead, ~4 mj nitrogen per kg of grain;
first ammonia synthesis plant in 1913 by BASF (using Haber-Bosch synthesis);
~60% of nutrients in Chinese crops from ammonia; ~160 (~20) kg fertilizer per hectare p.a. in EU (Ethiopia)
- plastic: production 20 k/2 mio./150 mio./370 mio. tons in 1925/1950/2000/2019; modern life
begins (in maternity wards) & ends (in ICUs) surrounded by plastic items
- steel: avg. car ~900 kg steel; iron ore production p.a. (esp. Australia, Brazil, China)
today ~2.5 bn tons (world resources >800 bn tons)
- concrete: today, most humans live in concrete cities; airstrips, dams, etc. need it;
China produced as much cement in 2018/19 as US in 20th century (~4.4 bn tons);
deteriorates quickly (big challenge in 2nd half of 21st century)
- resource/production (R/P) ratio of crude oil/steel/phosphate >50/>300/>300 ys
- long-distance shipping jumps: 1) diesel engine, 2) shipping container (1957), 3) higher freight loads
(1973-2019: >12x vessel capacity), 4) wide-bodied jetliner (e.g. Boeing 747);
- international trade in world economic product: 30%/61%/59% in 1973/2008/2019
- 3 existential parameters: breathing, drinking, eating
- 9 critical biospheric boundaries: climate change; ocean acidification; depletion of stratospheric ozone;
atmospheric aerosols; interference in nitrogen/phosphorus cycles (esp. release into coastal waters);
freshwater use (excessive withdrawals); land use changes (deforestation, urban expansion); biodiversity loss;
chemical pollution
- ways to reduce fossil food dependence
- food: less waste (bad crop storage/refrigeration, long chains),
less overproduction, lower environmental cost (meat consumption in Japan <30 kg p.a., western world >100 kg),
solar-/wind-powered irrigation; precision farming (e.g. nitrogen)
- 30% food wasted (~50% root crops/fruits/vegetables; ~30% of fish/cereals; ~20% oilseeds/meat/dairy products);
US food waste statistics unchanged for 40 years
- develop high-energy-density & low-cost batteries; less SUVs, more electric cars
- global growth shocks due to energy price surge
- 1/1/1974: Gulf states raised posted oil price to $11.65/barrel (4.5x in a single year) -->
global economic growth rate dropped by 90 percent in 1973-75
- 1978: takeover of Iran by fundamentalist theocracy ($13 in 1978 to $34 in 1981) -->
global economic growth rate dropped by 90 percent in 1979-82
- agriculture (today's food = transformed fossil fuels)
- recent economic progress impossible with 80% labor force in agriculture
- 2 secs. (10 mins.) human labor for 1 kg of US wheat today (200 ys ago)
- grow/mill grain+bake = ~250 ml diesel fuel (w/o transport) per kg of sourdough bread
- feed+rear+slaughter+process+store+cook: ~350 ml crude oil per kg of chicken meat
- seafood: ~700 ml diesel fuel per kg (some shrimp/lobster >10 l/kg; aquacultured herbivores,
e.g. Chinese carp, <300 ml/kg)
- 2020 world electricity: 10% nuclear, 16% hydro, 7% wind & solar, 66% coal & natural gas
- viable large-scale electricity storage: pumped hydro storage (~25% power loss)
- external energy phases
- fire (t->100 k ys); crop cultivation & animal domestication (t-10 k ys); sails (t-5 k ys);
waterwheels (t-2 k ys); windmills (t-1 k ys); coal (t-400 ys); steam engines (t-200 ys)
- 0.0000005 (0.000000028) fatalities per hour of exposure on US road (international flight)
- natural catastrophes: annual frequency 2x (1.6x) 1980-2005 (2005-19);
warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor (higher rain risk) & causes more droughts (higher fire risk)
- inexpensive risk measure: install smoke/carbon monoxide/natural gas sensors
- forms of energy: gravitational energy, kinetic energy, heat energy, elastic energy,
electrical energy, chemical energy, radiant energy, nuclear energy, mass energy